NGX Weekly Market Summary: August 8, 2025

The Nigerian equity market continued its impressive 2025 run, albeit at a more measured pace, as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) closed the week at 145,756.51, representing a +1.17% gain Week-to-Date (WTD) and a remarkable +41.26% Year-to-Date (YTD). Market activity saw a positive tilt as turnover increased +5.62%, trading volumes spiked +49.42%, and the number of deals surged +21.33%. Market breadth was robust at 1.74x, with 66.29% of listed stocks advancing and just 24.16% declining, underscoring still-buoyant sentiment particularly on the back of strong sector rotations. The Insurance sector stole the show with outsized gains, while a basket of defensive names with dividend yields and higher momentum measures also drew attention.

Key Trends and Highlights

• Market Breadth
  • Market breadth ended at 1.74x (advancers to decliners), highlighting a broad-based rally driven by strong participation—75 advancers versus 43 decliners.
  • Volume breadth was balanced: 141 stocks up on higher volume, 141 on lower volume.
  • 41 new highs for the week — a clear sign of bullish appetite.
• Top Gainers (WTD)

  Stock	WTD % Change	RSI	Div Yield	Comments
  CORNERST	+46.01%	71.80	5.28%	Insurance theme, RSI signals overbought zone (momentum play)
  MBENEFIT	+46.00%	92.37	3.28%	Exceptionally high RSI, possible short-term overheating (watch)
  AIICO	+45.83%	83.26	4.13%	Strong upwards momentum, sustained bullish crossover in MACD
  GREENWETF	+45.25%	81.06	0.00%	ETF outperformance as a broader market risk-on proxy
  INTENEGINS	+45.12%	71.22	3.40%	Insurance rally continues; high RSI

• Top Losers (WTD)

  Stock	WTD % Change	RSI	Div Yield	Comments
  VSPBONDETF	-59.46%	41.99	0.00%	Parallel move away from fixed income; ETF under pressure
  LIVINGTRUST	-24.13%	10.02	1.67%	Banking/mortgage play—severe selloff, oversold territory
  TIP	-14.29%	56.88	0.00%	Volatility spike after strong YTD rally; possible profit-taking
  UACN	-13.90%	67.66	1.00%	Recent outperformer turning lower; correction mode?
  LEGENDINT	-11.72%	40.70	0.00%	Internet/tech names facing cooling off

Momentum, Patterns & Insightful Observations

• Implications of Turnover Increase:
  • Turnover, volume and trade deals all rose — indicating broad and deep participation, not just a price rally. This adds credibility to the move, suggesting institutional and retail conviction.
  • While value traded trended up, the sharp acceleration in volume (up +49%) relative to value seems to indicate that the trades were concentrated in more affordable (typically small-cap/insurance) stocks.
• Advancing vs. Declining Stocks & Market Breadth:
  • New 41 weekly highs versus a single new low shows conviction and breadth; momentum is not limited to just a few large caps.
  • However, equity advances are highly concentrated—the Insurance sector dominates the WTD gainers' list, suggesting sector rotation/frothiness.
• Stocks with Unusual Volume:
  • AIICO, listed as both a top WTD gainer and among the most-traded by retail, recorded a major volume spike—suggesting retail-led speculative activity has entered high gear (to be watched for exhaustion signs given high RSI/overbought levels).
  • DANGCEM (Dangote Cement), UBA, ZENITHBANK, and ACCESSCORP remain institutional favorites — highlighting a "flight to quality” even as insurance speculative names run up the most.
• YTD & WTD Gainers & Losers Trends:
  • Gainers: Most WTD top gainers are also among top YTD gainers, especially in the Insurance sector (notably CORNERST, MBENEFIT, AIICO, INTENEGINS, SOVRENINS) — evidence of trending momentum.
  • Losers: Only VSPBONDETF (ETF) among top WTD losers is also a leader in YTD underperformance; this ETF's continued slide shows rotation out of fixed income into equities, perhaps in response to Naira stability and favorable liquidity.
  • Top losers LIVINGTRUST and UACN had enjoyed strong YTD rallies before this correction, hinting at profit-taking and possible entry points for value hunters soon.
• Bullish Momentum: Signs and Standouts
  • RSI over 70: Multiple insurance names — CORNERST (71.80), MBENEFIT (92.37), AIICO (83.26) — are extremely overbought. All show positive MACD histograms and their 15D MA exceeds 50D MA (sparklines upward crossover) — a technical trifecta for short-to-mid-term bullishness, but warning for late entrants to pare back position sizes.
  • Sustained MACD bullish crossover: AIICO, GREENWETF, REGALINS, ROYALEX, SOVRENINS (all strong momentum-based rallies).
• Bearish Momentum: Warning Beacons
  • RSI below 30: LIVINGTRUST (10.02) — sharply oversold; potential for technical bounce but bears remain in control short-term.
  • Negative MACD/histogram: VSPBONDETF, LEGENDINT, ACADEMY — all show technical breakdowns with 15DMA below 50DMA in sparklines.
• Dividend Yield & More
  • Several gainers such as CORNERST (5.28%), AIICO (4.13%), INTENEGINS (3.40%), SOVRENINS (3.75%) offer appealing yields alongside technical momentum, suggesting they’re attracting both income and momentum investors—a "crowded trade” risk for late entrants.
  • None of the largest yielders among top winners have appeared in the bearish momentum tables—validating momentum/yield coalescence as a powerful near-term driver for these names.

Index Performance Dashboard (Color-coded)

• Sector/Index Outperformance:
  • Insurance Index absolutely exploded by +36% WTD (+59% YTD)—unmatched, with small- and mid-cap insurers in a classic melt-up. Consumer Goods also posted strong results, up +3.19% this week and a robust +85.82% YTD, indicating investors' defensive and growth positioning.
  • Industrial, Oil/Gas and Main Board also clung to positive territory, while Growth & Premium indexes lagged — NGXGROWTH plummeted -12.55% WTD on evident profit-taking or risk-rotation.
  • Consumer defensive rotation: Positive sector performance was driven by investors seeking both upside and safety, as utilities lagged and insurance played momentum catch-up.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

WTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Market Activity & Trade Patterns: Institutional vs Retail

• Trading Patterns:
  • Institutions dominated value and volume (90.6% value, 78% volume), while retail actors made more individual trades (nearly 59%), typically in lower-priced equities.
  • Pattern: High-volume/low-value trading by retail (AIICO, insurance names), while institutional flows gravitate toward blue chips (DANGCEM, UBA, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, ACCESSCORP).
  • MTNN and AIICO actively traded by both groups, but for MTNN the institutional orders are substantially larger, underscoring confidence in core market leaders.
  • Retail and institutional overlap—such as AIICO—correlates with names featured in WTD/YTD gainers: confirmation of "momentum herd” behavior.
• Top 5 Institutional Traded Stocks
  1. DANGCEM
  2. UBA
  3. ZENITHBANK
  4. MTNN
  5. ACCESSCORP
• Top 5 Retail Traded Stocks
  1. MTNN
  2. UBA
  3. ACCESSCORP
  4. AIICO
  5. ZENITHBANK
  Insight: Banks and telcos remain core liquid vehicles for both investor segments.

Actionable Takeaways for Traders

• Momentum caution: If holding the top WTD/YTD gainers (Insurance cluster), consider partial profit taking or tightening stops—RSI and volume extremes suggest potential pullback risk after outsized runs.
• Bounce/Value setups: beaten down names in oversold territory (like LIVINGTRUST) could provide tactical short-term rebound opportunities for nimble traders—wait for bullish reversal signals.
• Dividend + Momentum Sweet Spot: Stocks fusing high yield with strong price momentum (CORNERST, AIICO)—but watch for crowding risk.
• Sector rotation: Consider rebalancing towards lagging sectors (e.g., Oil & Gas for turnaround potential or Consumer Goods for defensive positioning) if strength in Insurance looks overdone.
• Watch institutional leadership for trend cues: Strong buying in DANGCEM, banks, and MTNN indicates sectors/instruments where "smart money” is active.
• Be aware of possible profit-taking: as major indexes near YTD highs and technical momentum turns extreme in fave sectors.

Summary Table: Top Performers and Key Outliers

Final Word:

Strong institutional conviction and a buying frenzy in insurance and selected consumer/financial stocks powered the NGX higher. However, with market leadership highly concentrated and technical momentum in overbought territory, traders should watch closely for sector rotations, possible profit-taking, and short-term mean-reversion setups. Stay nimble, monitor volume and technical signals for reversals in the crowd favorites, and look for overlooked opportunities in lagging but fundamentally solid sectors. This is a market for both tactical agility and strategic selectivity.